Sunday, February 8, 2015

Trying to Understand Politics

I'm trying to wrap my brain around all the stuff happening with the Prime Minister position.

I'm reading this article which talks about a bunch of poll results.  It's taking a lot of effort for me to understand it, because I've been out of touch with Australian politics lately.

But I think I may be finally getting it.

Sort of.

It seems Tony Abbott is becoming unpopular, and the Liberal Party may change leaders. The most likely new leaders are Malcolm Turnbull and Julie Bishop.

In polls, it's been shown that Australians prefer Turnbull and Bishop to Abbott.  BUT this is with Labor voters. Liberal voters still prefer Abbott.

I'm just thinking....

Isn't it more important what Liberal voters want?

Because yes, Labor voters might like Turnbull and Bishop more than Abbott.  So if one of those folks becomes Prime Minister, they might complain a bit less. But what will they do, when there's an election and they can choose the Labor Party over the Liberal one?  I think they'll choose the Labor party over Turnbull or Bishop.

Ah! But Australia has the preferential voting thing. So I suppose if Labor voters are somewhat satisfied with Turnbull and Bishop, they're likely to mark them as their second choice.  If the math works out, I suppose that can keep the Liberal Party in power. Maybe?  I'm not good at math or politics.

I guess the other factor is that there are the people on the fence. They identify as Liberal or Labor, but are not fully married to either party. So they might actually prefer Turnbull or Bishop to the Labor leader.  If the Liberal Party gets a more appealing leader, perhaps some Labor voters will switch sides.

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